Northern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
med
19
med
20
21
med
22
high
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
high
28
low
29
med
Mar 1
med
2
med
3
low
4
low
5
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
10
11
low
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
low
16
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 February to 28 February, 28 February to 3 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 February to 26 February, and 27 February to 2 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 February to 28 February, 28 February to 3 March, and 7 March to 11 March.

Issued Feb 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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