Northern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
10
med
11
12
low
13
low
14
med
15
high
16
low
17
18
19
20
21
low
22
low
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
low
31
med
Sep 1
low
2
med
3
med
4
med
5
6
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 August to 22 August, 24 August to 28 August, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 August to 4 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 August to 19 August, 5 September to 9 September, and 9 September to 13 September.

Issued Aug 9

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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