Darwin-Daly 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
med
29
high
30
high
Dec 1
high
2
low
3
med
4
med
5
high
6
low
7
low
8
high
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
med
13
med
14
high
15
med
16
high
17
med
18
med
19
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 November to 3 December, 3 December to 7 December, and 22 December to 26 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 November to 4 December, 5 December to 9 December, and 16 December to 20 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 November to 30 November, 2 December to 6 December, and 22 December to 26 December.

Issued Nov 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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