Yorke Peninsula 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
4
5
6
med
7
8
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
low
13
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
low
18
19
low
20
low
21
med
22
med
23
24
25
26
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
31
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 July to 13 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 30 July to 3 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 July to 17 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 6 August to 10 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 31 July to 4 August.

Issued Jul 3

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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