Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
med
29
med
30
Jul 1
low
2
med
3
high
4
high
5
med
6
med
7
low
8
low
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
high
13
med
14
high
15
high
16
high
17
high
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
high
24
high
25
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 12 July to 16 July, and 26 July to 30 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 July to 2 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 July to 16 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 30 July to 3 August.

Issued Jun 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Site search


Enter a postcode or town name for local weather, or text to search the site. » advanced search

Dry fronts equating to frosty nights

15:03 AEST This winter so far has been one of dry fronts for southeastern Australia, bringing little rain and priming the air for frosty nights to follow.

Help with Farmonline Weather