Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
22
med
23
high
24
high
25
high
26
low
27
med
28
high
29
low
30
med
31
med
Aug 1
low
2
high
3
med
4
med
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
low
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 July to 1 August, 3 August to 7 August, and 8 August to 12 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 July to 1 August, 9 August to 13 August, and 13 August to 17 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 July to 1 August, 3 August to 7 August, and 16 August to 20 August.

Issued Jul 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Wet and windy weather to lash the southeast

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