Northeast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
high
26
low
27
28
low
29
med
30
med
Oct 1
med
2
med
3
med
4
low
5
6
7
low
8
low
9
med
10
high
11
12
low
13
med
14
high
15
med
16
low
17
18
19
med
20
low
21
med
22
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 October to 15 October, 21 October to 25 October, and 28 October to 1 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 September to 26 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 October to 5 October, 11 October to 15 October, and 18 October to 22 October.

Issued Sep 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Warming up in the southwest

16:45 AEST While southeastern Australia braces for a blast of wintry weather later this week, sothwestern Australia is getting an early taste of summer.

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