Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
30
31
med
Feb 1
high
2
low
3
med
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
15
low
16
17
med
18
med
19
20
21
low
22
low
23
24
low
25
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 February to 19 February, 22 February to 26 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 9 February to 13 February, and 22 February to 26 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 February to 11 February, 15 February to 19 February, and 29 February to 4 March.

Issued Jan 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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