East Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
low
29
low
30
med
31
med
Aug 1
high
2
low
3
med
4
med
5
high
6
high
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
low
13
14
med
15
high
16
17
high
18
med
19
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 24 August to 28 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 July to 4 August, and 17 August to 21 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 August to 9 August, 9 August to 13 August, and 17 August to 21 August.

Issued Jul 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Site search


Enter a postcode or town name for local weather, or text to search the site. » advanced search

Canberra's cold, dry start to winter

14:47 AEST Canberra is known for its cold weather, although this winter has been even colder - and drier - than usual.

Help with Farmonline Weather