North Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
high
19
20
low
21
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
28
low
29
low
30
med
Jul 1
high
2
low
3
med
4
high
5
high
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
med
13
med
14
low
15
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 6 July to 10 July, and 16 July to 20 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 June to 26 June, 26 June to 30 June, and 5 July to 9 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 June to 2 July, 2 July to 6 July, and 10 July to 14 July.

Issued Jun 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Soggy Sunday for Sydney

12:24 AEST Sydneysiders awoke to a soggy morning on Sunday as an offshore low pressure trough drove showers through the basin.

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