W S Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
low
29
Mar 1
2
low
3
med
4
med
5
6
7
8
low
9
med
10
high
11
high
12
med
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
low
17
med
18
low
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
low
26
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 March to 11 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 March to 9 March, and 11 March to 15 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 March to 11 March, 11 March to 15 March, and 27 March to 31 March.

Issued Feb 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Site search


Enter a postcode or town name for local weather, or text to search the site. » advanced search

Five cyclones named, Gretel up next

15:03 AEDT As February draws to a close, five tropical cyclones have been named in Australia's area of responsibility since the start of the season.

Help with Farmonline Weather