Late-season cyclone potential
Ben Domensino,
Thursday April 27, 2017 - 16:30 AEST
A tropical cyclone may form in Australian waters during the next 24 hours, although the system will have little impact on our mainland.
A tropical low located more than 300km to the north of Darwin is forecast to move towards the west southwest during the next 24 hours. This path should take the low through an environment that will allow it to strengthen and it may become a cyclone tonight or on Friday.
Fortunately, the system's general westward track should keep it away from Australia's mainland for the rest of today and tomorrow.
The main effects from this system for Australia will be associated with the outer cloud bands. A severe weather warning has been issued for damaging winds and heavy rain with thunderstorms over the Tiwi Islands and Cobourg Peninsula.
Looking ahead, there is a bit more model uncertainty regarding the system's movement beyond Friday. At this stage, the low or cyclone should encounter increased wind shear causing it to fizzle out on the weekend.
Should the system unexpectedly take a more southerly track than anticipated, wind and rain may increase for western parts of the Top End and Western Australia's Kimberley. However, the Australian mainland is currently not in the firing line.
If a cyclone does form it will be named Frances and become the seventh named tropical cyclone in Australian waters this season, which officially ends on Sunday.
This system is the 29th tropical low located in our waters so far this season, which is a new record for the Australian region.
- Weatherzone
© Weatherzone
2017