Murraylands 12-month Rainfall Forecast

10 5 0
No forecast available for this district.
Rainfall deciles
10 Well above normal
8-9 Above normal
4-7 Near normal
2-3 Below normal
1 Well below normal

Issue Notes

ENSO status: Neutral.
IOD status: Neutral.
SAM status: Positive.

La Niņa has officially ended, with neutral conditions expected until at least the end of winter, therefore having no effect on our climate here in Australia.

While La Niņa has returned to neutral, the oceans around northern Australia are warmer than normal. This may enhance rainfall during the next month or so, before the oceans return to normal conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to continue to be neutral at least until early winter. The confidence in the IOD forecast at this time of the year is low, specifically because the models are showing a range of outcomes from mid winter onwards.

During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southwestern WA, southern VIC and much of TAS. The warmer than normal oceans may be playing a role in this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across Australia's snowfields. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast.

Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from far southwestern WA, parts of southeastern QLD and NSW, southern VIC and much of TAS. The warmer than normal oceans may be playing a role in this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across Australia's snowfields.

Issued May 10

Forecast Explanation

Notes on the concept of deciles

If all the data in a record are ranked from lowest to highest they can then be divided into 100 equal blocks. These blocks are known as percentiles. The values that fall into the lowest 10% range (from 0 to 10%) are said to be in the first decile, those in the group 10+% to 20% are in the second decile, and so on. Those in the group 90+% to the maximum value recorded are in the 10th decile. The 50% value is a special one known as the 'median'. It is noteworthy since there is the same number of records above and below its value.

Deciles have been found to be very useful for analysing rainfall in particular as its distribution is not the normal bell-shape distribution but is skewed towards many low values with only a few high values. The deciles can be described in qualitative terms. A table is provided in the accompanying results.

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