Sydney 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
8
med
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
high
20
high
21
med
22
med
23
high
24
low
25
low
26
27
med
28
med
29
med
30
low
31
med
Jan 1
med
2
med
3
med
4
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 December to 21 December, 2 January to 6 January, and 6 January to 10 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 December to 30 December, 1 January to 5 January, and 6 January to 10 January.

Issued Dec 7

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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