|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 July to 2 August, 13 August to 17 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 July to 25 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 July to 1 August, 1 August to 5 August, and 13 August to 17 August.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
13:11 AEST At least 67 people have been killed in the western Indian state of Maharashtra by torrential monsoon rains that have caused landslides and flooded low-lying areas, cutting off hundreds of villages.