|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 November to 11 November, 11 November to 15 November, and 23 November to 27 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 November to 8 November, 12 November to 16 November, and 16 November to 20 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 November to 14 November, 15 November to 19 November, and 23 November to 27 November.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
17:13 AEDT Much of South Australia has had little or no rain during the past week or so, making some farmers nervous, but they shouldn't have to wait too much longer.