West Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

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No forecast available for this district.

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-04-24, 2024-05-01 and 2024-05-20. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-04-22, 2024-04-29 and 2024-05-05. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-04-22.

Issued Apr 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Wind returning to southeastern Australia

10:07 AEST After a prolonged period of light winds, a surge of powerful winds and cool air will push through southeastern Australia during the next 48 hours. As we wrote about last week the National Electricity Market (NEM) saw very low wind power generation during the seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18, with the daily wind generation having been under 41 GWh/day for this period. Wind power has improved slightly during the past week, with wind power increasing for a few days over last weekend.