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Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
29
low
low
30
low
low
Jul 1
low
low
2
low
low
3
low
low
4
low
low
5
6
low
low
7
med
med
8
med
med
9
low
low
10
11
12
med
med
13
med
med
14
low
low
15
low
low
16
med
med
17
med
med
18
high
high
19
med
med
20
low
low
21
med
med
22
low
low
23
low
low
24
low
low
25
high
high
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 July to 9 July, 14 July to 18 July, and 26 July to 30 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 July to 6 July, 23 July to 27 July, and 28 July to 1 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 July to 9 July, 11 July to 15 July, and 17 July to 21 July.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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