Weather Warnings - Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0649 UTC 12/05/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 33U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 8.3S
Longitude: 137.5E
Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km)
Movement Towards: northwest (307 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 12/1200: 8.3S 137.0E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 1003
+12: 12/1800: 8.2S 136.4E: 060 (110): 025 (045): 1005
+18: 13/0000: 8.0S 135.9E: 060 (115): 025 (045): 1005
+24: 13/0600: 7.7S 135.4E: 070 (130): 025 (045): 1005
+36: 13/1800: 7.1S 134.0E: 085 (155): 020 (035): 1008
+48: 14/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None
+60: 14/1800: None None: None (None): None (None): None
+72: 15/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None
+96: 16/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None
+120: 17/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 33U continues to weaken and has no chance of intensifying. The low-level circulation remains poorly defined with ongoing deep convection displaced southeast of the centre. Position in the Arufura Sea near the West Papuan Island of Dolok is based on animated visible imagery with only moderate confidence and likely elongated to a second centre to the southeast. Intensity Vm=30kn located southeast of the centre based on a combination of OSCAT 0311 UTC winds, model guidance and Dvorak. Dvorak DT=1.5 is based on a shear pattern with the centre now over a degree removed from the deep convection. MET = 1.5 based on a 24-hour D- trend and FT/CI=1.5/2.0. Objective guidance (1-min mean at 0530 UTC unless otherwise stated): ADT 34 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPRINT 29 kn, DMINT N/A and SATCON 40kn (at 0430UTC). While some environmental influences remain conducive for development- upper level divergence poleward, low vertical wind shear (NW at 12kn from CIMSS) and warm waters (29C). These are offset by proximity to the island of Dolok, and movement into a much drier environment that is now apparent. Model guidance is in agreement that the circulation will continue to weaken. There is broad model consensus for movement to the west northwest as the weakening system is steered by the persistent low level southeasterly trade flow.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system.

• 11:20 AEST Why is NSW so wet and when will the rain stop?
• 16:34 AEST Powerful polar blast roaring towards Australia
• 12:39 AEST Historic flooding as eastern NSW deluge continues
• 09:26 AEST Indian monsoon onset on the doorstep