Illawarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
med
27
high
28
med
29
high
30
med
Dec 1
low
2
med
3
4
5
med
6
high
7
med
8
med
9
high
10
high
11
low
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
20
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 November to 24 November, 3 December to 7 December, and 17 December to 21 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 November to 24 November, 29 November to 3 December, and 7 December to 11 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 November to 24 November, 3 December to 7 December, and 17 December to 21 December.

Issued Nov 14

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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