South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
high
20
med
21
low
22
med
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
high
27
high
28
low
29
low
30
med
Dec 1
2
med
3
med
4
low
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
high
10
high
11
low
12
high
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 November to 24 November, 3 December to 7 December, and 17 December to 21 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 November to 24 November, 29 November to 3 December, and 7 December to 11 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 November to 24 November, 3 December to 7 December, and 17 December to 21 December.

Issued Nov 14

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Severe storms affecting multiple states

15:40 AEDT Severe thunderstorms are affecting parts of Victoria, NSW, the ACT and Queensland today.

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