Mallee 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

19
low

30
low

Jan 1

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 December to 4 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 15 January to 19 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 December to 24 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 29 December to 2 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 December to 4 January, and 15 January to 19 January.

Issued Dec 15

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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