Mallee 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
20
21
22
23
low
24
low
25
26
27
28
low
29
30
Dec 1
low
2
3
low
4
5
6
low
7
8
9
low
10
11
low
12
13
14
15
med
16
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 November to 3 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 10 December to 14 December, and 18 December to 22 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December.

Issued Nov 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Site search


Enter a postcode or town name for local weather, or text to search the site. » advanced search

Spring heat for Western Australia

13:40 AEDT A hot air mass lingering over much of Western Australia is creating sweltering conditions.

Help with Farmonline Weather