Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
24
25
26
27
28
Mar 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
14
15
16
low
17
med
18
low
19
high
20
low
21
22
Chance of rainfall within district |
nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 March to 6 March, 8 March to 12 March, and 17 March to 21 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 March to 10 March, and 21 March to 25 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 March to 12 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 27 March to 31 March.
Issued Feb 21
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models,
which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models
are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long
and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model
ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts
and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however
the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to
28 days.