Mallee 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Mar 1

3
low

4
high

5
med

6
med

7
med

8
high

9
med

10
low

17
low

20
low

21
low

22
low

23
low

25
low

28
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 March to 10 March, 15 March to 19 March, and 21 March to 25 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 March to 13 March, and 21 March to 25 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 March to 9 March, 9 March to 13 March, and 16 March to 20 March.

Issued Feb 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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