Mallee 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

26
med

27
low

30
low

Jul 1
low

2
low

3
low

5
low

8
high

10
low

11
low

12
med

13
med

15
low

17
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 July to 10 July, 10 July to 14 July, and 17 July to 21 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 July to 20 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 June to 29 June, 6 July to 10 July, and 10 July to 14 July.

Issued Jun 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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