Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
med
28
high
29
med
30
high
Oct 1
med
2
med
3
med
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
med
10
high
11
low
12
med
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
med
19
low
20
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the south Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 October to 6 October, 7 October to 11 October, and 13 October to 17 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 September to 2 October, 3 October to 7 October, and 14 October to 18 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 September to 28 September, 8 October to 12 October, and 13 October to 17 October.

Issued Sep 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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