Northern Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
16
low
17
med
18
high
19
med
20
med
21
low
22
23
med
24
low
25
26
low
27
low
28
29
low
30
med
31
med
Sep 1
2
3
low
4
low
5
med
6
med
7
low
8
med
9
med
10
low
11
12
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 August to 2 September, 3 September to 7 September, and 8 September to 12 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 September to 11 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 August to 1 September, 3 September to 7 September, and 16 September to 20 September.

Issued Aug 14

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Wetter than average August for Perth

17:03 AEST Even though we are not yet half way through August, Perth has already recorded higher than average rainfall.

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