South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

24
high

25
high

26
med

30
med

Oct 1
low

3
low

4
low

6
low

7
low

9
low

10
low

11
med

12
high

13
med

14
med

15
low

17
low

18
med

19
low

20
med

21
med

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 September to 2 October, 12 October to 16 October, and 24 October to 28 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 October to 22 October, and 25 October to 29 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 September to 2 October, 19 October to 23 October, and 24 October to 28 October.

Issued Sep 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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