South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

27
low

28
med

30
high

May 1
high

2
high

3
low

4
low

5
low

8
low

9
low

10
low

13
med

14
med

15
low

17
low

18
med

19
low

20
med

21
low

22
low

24
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 May to 15 May, 18 May to 22 May, and 23 May to 27 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 May to 17 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 May to 16 May, 17 May to 21 May, and 30 May to 3 June.

Issued Apr 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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