South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

18
med

19
med

20
low

21
low

22
high

23
med

25
med

26
low

30
low

31
low

Nov 1
med

2
med

5
low

6
med

7
low

8
med

9
low

11
low

12
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 October to 25 October, 4 November to 8 November, and 15 November to 19 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 October to 29 October, 30 October to 3 November, and 16 November to 20 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 October to 25 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 15 November to 19 November.

Issued Oct 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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