South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
med
19
med
20
low
21
low
22
high
23
med
24
25
med
26
low
27
28
29
30
low
31
low
Nov 1
med
2
med
3
4
5
low
6
med
7
low
8
med
9
low
10
11
low
12
low
13
14
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 October to 25 October, 4 November to 8 November, and 15 November to 19 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 October to 29 October, 30 October to 3 November, and 16 November to 20 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 October to 25 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 15 November to 19 November.

Issued Oct 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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