South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

21
med

22
high

23
high

24
high

25
med

26
high

27
high

28
med

29
high

30
med

Oct 1
med

2
med

3
low

4
med

5
low

6
med

7
med

8
high

9
low

10
low

11
low

12
high

13
low

14
med

15
med

17
low

18
med

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the south Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 October to 6 October, 7 October to 11 October, and 13 October to 17 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 September to 2 October, 3 October to 7 October, and 14 October to 18 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 September to 28 September, 8 October to 12 October, and 13 October to 17 October.

Issued Sep 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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