South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

24
med

25
high

26
high

27
med

28
low

29
high

30
high

31
high

Aug 1
low

2
low

3
med

4
low

5
med

6
high

9
med

10
low

11
low

12
med

13
high

14
high

15
med

16
high

19
low

20
high

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 July to 1 August, 3 August to 7 August, and 11 August to 15 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 July to 25 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 July to 1 August, 3 August to 7 August, and 7 August to 11 August.

Issued Jul 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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