Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
28
29
30
low
May 1
low
2
3
low
4
low
5
6
7
8
9
10
low
11
12
13
14
low
15
low
16
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
21
22
23
low
24
Chance of rainfall within district |
nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 May to 16 May, 24 May to 28 May, and 29 May to 2 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 May to 13 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 May to 18 May, 25 May to 29 May, and 29 May to 2 June.
Issued Apr 26
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models,
which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models
are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long
and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model
ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts
and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however
the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to
28 days.