Lower West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
30
low
31
low
Aug 1
2
3
med
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
8
low
9
med
10
low
11
med
12
high
13
med
14
low
15
med
16
med
17
high
18
low
19
med
20
med
21
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 23 August to 27 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 July to 25 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 August to 8 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 21 August to 25 August.

Issued Jul 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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The week ahead for NSW

15:11 AEST A cold front is passing over southern parts of New South Wales, with cold air in its wake and unusually warm air ahead of the system over central and northern areas.

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