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Plenty of fuel this bushfire season

Ben Domensino, Thursday September 1, 2016 - 14:34 AEST

One of Australia's wettest winters on record has primed parts of the country for above-average bushfire potential this season.

The Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2016 released this week reveals a downside to Australia's wet winter, which was the second wettest on record according to preliminary data.

Prolific winter rainfall across the country was driven by above average sea surface temperatures surrounding Australia, a strongly negative Indian Ocean Diople and a decaying El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. All three of these features helped to enhance rainfall in Australia during winter months.

The upside of the rain has been an increase in soil moisture and water storages for some drought-affected parts of the country, which is undoubtedly good news in the short term. But it is a double-edged sword. Increased soil moisture in Spring enhances vegetation growth in southern states, which can lead to higher bushfire fuel loads during the second half of the year.

Vegetation alone isn't enough to cause more fires. Other key ingredients to consider are temperatures and curing, which refers to how much dead or burnable vegetation is available in a given region.

Looking ahead, fire dangers are likely to be suppressed early in spring due to the amount of fresh vegetation coming out of such a wet winter. The risky period looks to be later in spring and in summer, when rain is expected to return closer to average and temperatures climb faster than usual as in recent years.

The areas most likely to see above average bushfire conditions this season according to the outlook are central and western New South Wales, the western half of Victoria and pockets of Western Australia (including the southwest) and Queensland (not including the southeast).

More details are available in the full outlook report here: http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/hazardnotes/019

- Weatherzone

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