|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 December to 21 December, 23 December to 27 December, and 2 January to 6 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 December to 13 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 3 January to 7 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 December to 20 December, 23 December to 27 December, and 31 December to 4 January.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
13:12 AEDT Goondiwindi's 65-year-old levee has once again saved homes from major flooding, but the town is now surrounded by water and there are fears some rural communities could cut off for days, if not weeks.