|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 November to 6 November, 6 November to 10 November, and 11 November to 15 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 October to 2 November, 2 November to 6 November, and 8 November to 12 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 November to 6 November, 12 November to 16 November, and 21 November to 25 November.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
17:13 AEDT Much of South Australia has had little or no rain during the past week or so, making some farmers nervous, but they shouldn't have to wait too much longer.