Darwin-Daly 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
med
28
med
29
med
30
high
31
high
Nov 1
low
2
med
3
med
4
high
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
med
10
high
11
high
12
low
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
high
17
high
18
med
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 November to 6 November, 6 November to 10 November, and 11 November to 15 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 October to 2 November, 2 November to 6 November, and 8 November to 12 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 November to 6 November, 12 November to 16 November, and 21 November to 25 November.

Issued Oct 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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