Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
med
30
low
31
Feb 1
low
2
low
3
med
4
med
5
6
low
7
low
8
high
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
low
13
med
14
high
15
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 February to 5 February, 6 February to 10 February, and 11 February to 15 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 January to 20 January, and 9 February to 13 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, and 12 February to 16 February.

Issued Jan 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Victorians brace for more thunderstorms, heavy rain and flash floods as wild weather continues

ABC image 22:35 AEDT More wild weather will lash Victoria on Friday, with showers and thunderstorms expected across large parts of the state.  A severe thunderstorm warning was issued shortly after 9am for parts of the Central and South West districts, which includes regional centres such as Colac, Ballarat, Bacchus Marsh and Geelong.

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