Northeast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
16
med
17
18
19
low
20
med
21
22
low
23
24
med
25
low
26
27
28
low
29
med
30
low
31
med
Jun 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 May to 2 June, 5 June to 9 June, and 18 June to 22 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 May to 26 May, 30 May to 3 June, and 4 June to 8 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 May to 3 June, 9 June to 13 June, and 18 June to 22 June.

Issued May 15

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Site search


Enter a postcode or town name for local weather, or text to search the site. » advanced search

Help with Farmonline Weather