Weather Warnings - Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0103 UTC 08/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 96.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 380 nm (700 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 08/0600: 16.2S 95.2E: 040 (080): 045 (085): 993
+12: 08/1200: 16.2S 94.5E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 993
+18: 08/1800: 15.9S 93.7E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 993
+24: 09/0000: 15.7S 93.1E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 989
+36: 09/1200: 15.1S 92.4E: 075 (140): 060 (110): 981
+48: 10/0000: 14.5S 92.2E: 085 (155): 065 (120): 977
+60: 10/1200: 14.4S 92.1E: 085 (160): 070 (130): 971
+72: 11/0000: 14.6S 91.5E: 100 (190): 070 (130): 972
+96: 12/0000: 16.3S 89.5E: 150 (280): 070 (130): 974
+120: 13/0000: 19.3S 86.7E: 215 (400): 065 (120): 975

REMARKS:
Taliah was located using animated IR satellite imagery and track persistence with low confidence. Intensity: 45kn based to subjective Dvorak. Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=3.0/3.0 based upon MET = 3.0 with centre position located underneath dense overcast region. Objective intensity aids ADT 57kn, AiDT 44kn, D-PRINT 60kn, SATCON 47kn (all 1 min). Taliah is currently being steered to the west by a strong ridge to the southeast. The ridge weakens during the weekend with the passage of a shortwave upper trough passing to the south. As a result, Taliah slows down and tracks slightly north-westwards. A new mid-level anticyclone builds to the south-southwest early next week, pushing to the east of Taliah and forcing it to take a south-westwards movement by mid next week. Taliah is forecast to leave the Australian region (90E) early on Wednesday as a category 3 cyclone. CIMSS wind shear analysis indicates moderate (15 to 20 kn) easterly shear, which is expected to drop in the next 24 hours as the ridge weakens. The system is supported by deep low to mid-level moisture with warm SSTs (28C). The passage of the upper trough in the 24 to 48 hours may provide increased upper level divergence assisting Taliah to increase in intensity. The current forecast has Taliah persisting as a category 1 through today, intensifying to category 2 on Sunday, and then category 3 on Monday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0730 UTC.

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