Weather Warnings - Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 28/12/2024
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 96.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (144 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 29/0000: 15.2S 96.5E: 035 (070): 030 (055): 1002
+12: 29/0600: 15.5S 96.5E: 045 (085): 030 (055): 1002
+18: 29/1200: 15.7S 96.3E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 1002
+24: 29/1800: 15.8S 95.7E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 1003
+36: 30/0600: 16.1S 93.9E: 075 (145): 030 (055): 1003
+48: 30/1800: 16.2S 92.1E: 090 (170): 030 (055): 1003
+60: 31/0600: 16.5S 90.1E: 105 (190): 025 (045): 1006
+72: 31/1800: 16.8S 88.1E: 105 (195): 025 (045): 1006
+96: 01/1800: 16.8S 84.6E: 150 (275): 025 (045): 1006
+120: 02/1800: 16.7S 81.3E: 180 (335): 025 (045): 1006

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 07U maintains intensity despite unfavourable conditions. The system managed to maintain its intensity during Saturday even though the environment is unfavourable with strong shear of 20 to 25 knots and dry air impacting the system. Recent IR imagery shows reduced convection to the southwest of the low level centre. Recent ASCAT passes show winds of 25 knots in the western quadrants of the system. The position is extrapolated from the 14:55 UTC ASCAT image which showed an elongated centre. Dvorak analysis has an unclear DT of 2.0 based on a shear pattern, MET and PAT of of 1.0 based on a weakening trend. FT is constrained to 1.5, CI is held at 2.0. Objective intensity estimates are consistent, with ADT and AiDT indicating 34 and 32 knots respectively, and DPRINT suggesting 25 knots (all 1-minute winds). The intensity of 07U is assessed at 25 knots based on a synthesis of the ASCAT pass, Dvorak analysis, and objective guidance. The tropical low is forecast to continue tracking southward during the remainder of Saturday and early Sunday before turning west later Sunday. Recent model guidance indicates no gales near the system over the next 48 hours. Despite maintaining its intensity, the environment remains unfavourable for further development, and the chance of 07U reaching tropical cyclone intensity remains Low for the overnight period Sunday into Monday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/0130 UTC.

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